Jangan tertipu oleh orang Australia yang memulai dengan cepat

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Hindia Barat v Australia
Sabtu 17 Juli 00.30
TV: langsung di BT Sport

Windies kehilangan arah

Hindia Barat mungkin akan menganggap mereka harus unggul 4-0 menuju pertandingan final setelah mereka secara mengejutkan melepaskan pengejaran yang tampaknya mereka kendalikan pada pertandingan terakhir.

Set 189 untuk menang, tim tuan rumah duduk manis setelah kemitraan pembukaan yang cepat dari Lendl Simmons dan Evin Lewis, yang terakhir jatuh di opver kelima dengan skor 52. Simmons akan melanjutkan untuk memukul 72 dari 48.

Chris Gayle, Andre Fletcher dan Nic Pooran, bagaimanapun, menyumbat babak dan Fabian Allen meluncurkan serangan terlambat untuk menempatkan mereka kembali ke jalurnya. Dengan 11 dari delapan diperlukan mereka adalah favorit kuat. Namun, Riley Meredith menyingkirkan Allen, dan Australia mampu menahan pukulan mereka yang tidak pernah kecil[art to Andre Russell turning down runs.

Dwayne Bravo, Obed McCoy and Shimron Hetmyer missed out last time. Their race may have been run. Kieron Pollard is a major doubt still with a hamstring injury.

Probable XI Simmons, Lewis, Gayle, Fletcher, Pooran, Russell, Allen, Hosein, Walsh, Cottrell, Thomas

Australia to revert to type

Australia’s strong performance with the bat first up means they have solved their scoring issues, right? Wrong. Look at it this way: should a team which is 126 for one in the 12th be making more or less than 189?

We all know the answer. So Australia’s chronic middle-order go-slow remains. And it’s not going to be solved until perhaps players like Glenn Maxwell and Marcus Stoinis return and are given the freedom to be reckless. The last point is the key.

The Aussies are hugely reliant on a fast start. Finch did the business with a rapid fifty but the plaudits again go to Mitchell Marsh with 73. What’s the betting when David Warner and Steve Smith are available Mitchell is shunted down from the No 3 position he has made his own?

Possible XI Wade, Finch, M Marsh, Carey, Henriques, Turner, Christian, Starc, Zampa, Meredith, Behrendorff

Pitch report

So far we have two scores of 141 and 145 and two of 189 and 196. That’s some swing for the same venue. It’s not as confusing as it looks, though. Barring game four Australia have been consistent with their middle-order getting in a muddle. We just need to get our timing right when to go unders.
Waiting until after the first six overs of powerplay is one option to short their innings runs line.

Another is to wait for the wickets of Finch or Marsh. Or you could take it to the death and go unders from the 16th over. Remember, no team scores more slowly in the death overs than Australia. It is quite an ask for them to be going at the expected 8.5-9 runs an over mark.

Hosts price to come up

West Indies are 1.804/5 and Australia 2.206/5. We think West Indies are a far superior outfit and expect them to end the series with a 4-1 success.

But we can get better odds. Australia are reliable with the bat. They start fast. Then they lose their way. Consistently throughout the series that has meant we have been able to lay them at skinny odds when at the crease.

At the very least we should expect the odds to flip so asking for 2.206/5 West Indies from the get go is a great starting point.

Tops value

Marsh is enjoying a tremendous scoring sequence: 51, 54, 9, 75. He picked up the man of the match award last time, too. He is 11/4 with Sportsbook for a repeat top-bat and 8/1 for man of the match. Finch has been boosted to 10/3. Wade is 7/2.

For West Indies, Simmons has been boosted to 10/3 as well but we don’t like to follow players for back-to-back wins. Lewis is 7/2 while Fletcher looks a little toppy at 7/1 for a No 4.

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