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Islamabad United v Karachi Kings
Sunday 6 February, 14:30
TV: live on Sky Sports
Islamabad had their wings clipped by Lahore Qalandars on Saturday. It was their second defeat of the series out of four. It’s a record which doesn’t do justice to the way they play.
They are aggressive with the bat and have the best boundary percentage rating, a key metric as most analysts would tell you. However, they were undone at the death against Lahore. Hairs Rauf, Shaheen Shah Afridi and Zaman Khan combined for a shut out when United appeared to be cruising. It can happen against a quality attack and perhaps they should not panic.
Probable XI: Stirling, Hales, Munro, Shadab, Azam, Asif Ali, Faheem, Mubasir, Hasan, Wasim Jnr, Waqas
Kings are having a dreadful time. They have played four, lost four. And it has mattered not whether they batted or bowled first.
To compound their woes they have lost Mohammad Ilyas and Mohammad Amir for the tournament due to injury. Left-arm pacer Usman Shinwari is a very solid replacement, though.
Last time out against Zalmi they should have won. Chasing 174 was not ardu-ous but they failed to take it deep.
Babar Azam must take responsibility. His unbeaten 90 off 63 looks good but he hit three successive fours in the final over when the game was lost to give his strike rate some gloss. And in the power play he was 27 off 23. It’s not good enough for a man of his calibre and it’s not the first time.
Possible XI: Babar, Sharjeel, Farhan, Cockbain, Nabi, Yamin, Imad, Gregory, Shinwari, Asif, Imran
Before Sultans-Zalmi on Saturday, more than 170 batting first has been posted in 18 of the last 28 at Karachi’s National Stadium and in 18 of those both teams scored 160 or more. The massive toss bias held at the start of the tournament but the chaser has failed to win the last six – six out of 12 have now been won by the side batting second.
In the last 37 PSL games at Karachi, 26 have been won by the chaser. The runs line is the best course of action for betting now. Sportsbook closed off the angle for both for more than 170. We’re now looking at 8/5 for both scoring more than 180 and that’s a bit tight.
Windies can hold their own
If Kings can’t chase a par score with a massive historic toss bias and the No 1 batter in the world carrying his bat from what position can they win?
We are keen on United at all prices. We expect to them to chase pretty much anything and to be too strong if they bat first.
Pre-toss they are going off at 1.728/11. We hoped the Lahore defeat might have seen them drift a bit more. There’s still time. But if they don’t come up the 1.728/11 is okay.
We had a nice win on Babar for top match runscorer. We bet him because we knew had win rate on our side. For the same reason we keep faith with Alex Hales at a boosted for 3/1 top United bat. It’s a great price about Hales. We know exactly what we get with him. He goes hard or home early.
Asif Ali catches the eye for the same market at 17s but the brutal truth is that it’s not a wrong price on how often he wins.
Joe Clarke was surprisingly missing from the last Karachi XI. His place went to Ian Cockbain, who looks underrated at 7s. He should bat at No 3 or 4. Bet on the market here